The probability of bitcoin ending its four-year February winning streak in 2019 is high, as the primary trend is bearish for the first time in the last three years. Further, BTC’s failure to capitalize on a bullish pattern on the 3-day chart indicates bearish sentiment is still quite strong.
BTC risks falling to December lows near $3,100 in the next few days.
The odds of BTC ending February in the green would rise sharply if prices see a strong bounce from the crucial 200-week moving average at $3,298.
Bitcoin could end its four-year February winning streak unless prices see a strong bounce from key support.
The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization gained 16, 18, 23.5 and 1.6 percent in the second month of 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI).
BTC generally posts losses in January before putting on a good show in February. The January losing streak looks certain to extend to the fifth year running with a close tonight in the negative.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $3,414, representing a 7 percent drop from the monthly opening price of $3,693.
January was a good month for the cryptocurrency during the three year period of 2012–2014.
BTC is reporting losses in January for the fifth consecutive year.
However, the odds of bitcoin posting gains in February for the fifth year straight are quite low, as the recent drop to six-week lows has put the bears back in a commanding position.
The bearish setup, however, would weaken if the crucial 200-week moving average support, currently at $3,298, holds ground for the second time in two months. That could yield a sustained rally to $4,000.